摘要
基于拓展引力模型对中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”西线45个国家贸易潜力的实证分析发现:经济规模、人均GDP、贸易自由度等因素对贸易量影响较大且呈正相关,地理距离以及是否为内陆国家与贸易量呈负相关;西线四个区域国家的贸易潜力类型有明显差异,中国与东南亚国家之间属于潜力再造型,与南亚国家之间属于潜力巨大型,与西亚和东北非国家之间包含潜力巨大、潜力再造和潜力开拓三种类型,同一区域内各国的贸易潜力也有所不同。促进中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”西线国家之间的贸易,应优先选择贸易伙伴并分层次对待;完善基础设施建设,促进交通便利,保障贸易畅通;充分依托政策优势深化贸易合作,实现各国互利共赢。
Empirical analysis of trade potential between China and 45 countries along the western route of the"21st century Maritime Silk Road"based on the extended gravity model shows that:economic scale,per capita GDP,trade freedom and other factors have a greater impact on trade volume and are positively correlated;geographical distance and whether it is a landlocked country are negatively correlated with trade volume;and four regions along the western route are negatively correlated with trade volume.There are obvious differences in the types of trade potential between countries.China and Southeast Asian countries belong to the potential reengineering type,while South Asian countries belong to the potential tremendous type.There are three types of potential reengineering and potential development between China and West and Northeast African countries.The trade potential of countries in the same region is also different.On this basis,this paper gives some policy suggestions on how to promote trade between China and the western countries of the"21st century Maritime Silk Road".Priority should be given to choosing trade partners and treating them at different levels;infrastructure construction should be improved to facilitate transportation and ensure smooth trade;trade cooperation should be deepened fully relying on policy advantages to achieve mutual benefit and win-win situation for all countries.
作者
张桂梅
李晓璇
ZHANG Gui-mei;LI Xiao-xuan(Sanming University,Sanming 365004,China)
出处
《山东工商学院学报》
2019年第6期22-35,共14页
Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新兴经济体‘嵌入’全球价值链中的路径选择、发展绩效与升级策略研究”(15BJL085)
山东省自然科学基金项目“全球价值链环境效应的测度、形成与改善研究——基于山东省的实证研究”(ZR2015GM014)
