摘要
充分挖掘产业结构转型红利,通过产业结构转型升级为经济增长提供新动力,是新常态下中国经济发展亟须解决的问题。文章从产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化两个维度研究产业结构升级,结果表明:产业结构高级化与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,产业结构的合理化水平是决定两者之间数量关系的重要门限变量。当产业结构合理化指数小于0.0742时,产业结构高级化可以促进经济增长,而当产业结构合理化指数大于0.0742时,产业结构高级化对经济增长没有促进作用。因此,对于产业结构合理化指数大于0.0742的省(区、市)而言,现阶段的产业政策应将重心更多放在产业结构合理化上,进而再有序推进产业结构的高级化进程。
Against the background of new economic normal, China's economic development faces challenges of transformation. How to facilitate industrial structure transformation and provide new impetus for economic growth is a pressing problem for China. This paper discusses the issue of China's industrial structure upgrade from two dimensions: industrial structure advancement and industrial structure rationalization. The results show that there is a nonlinear relation between industrial structure advancement and economic growth. At the same time, the rationalization level of industrial structure is an important threshold variable which determines the quantitative relationship between the two. When the rationalization of industrial structure is less than 0.0742, the promotion of industrial structure can promote economic growth. And when it is greater than 0.0742, the industrial structure will not promote economic growth. For those Provinces in the latter group, industrial policies should focus on rationalization of industrial structure, which should be followed by the the advancement of industrial structure in an orderly manner.
作者
车明好
邓晓兰
陈宝东
CHE Minghao;DENG Xiaolan;CHEN Baodong(School of Finance and Economics,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an,Shanxi,710061;School of management,Xi'an Polytechnic University,Xi'an,Shanxi,710048)
出处
《管理学刊》
CSSCI
2019年第4期12-20,共9页
Journal of Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJA790020)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJC790007)
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2018D32)
陕西省社科界2019年重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2019C078)
关键词
产业结构高级化
产业结构合理化
经济增长
门限回归
Advancement of industrial structure
Rationalization of industrial structure
Economic growth
Threshold regression
