摘要
精准脱贫户的生计可持续性已成为后扶贫时期我国关注的焦点问题之一。本文选择生计资本和代际可持续性两个关键属性构建了生计可持续性框架,将生计资本划分为自然资本、物质资本、人力资本、社会资本和金融资本五类,将后代教育作为代际可持续性评估要素。在此基础上,采用全国社科基金规划重点项目课题组于2016—2017年分三次进行的大规模微观农户入户调查数据,构建BP神经网筛选计算出可持续生计24项评价指标及其权重,对各贫困地区可持续生计指数的预测结果表明:甘肃、山西贫困地区精准脱贫户生计可持续性较强,可持续生计指数分别为4. 288和4. 161;云南、江西、重庆精准脱贫户生计较稳定,可持续生计指数差别较小且均超过3. 6;四川、湖南精准脱贫户可持续生计指数为3. 377和3. 135,生计水平较低;贵州地区可持续生计指数为2. 953,精准脱贫户生计脆弱。基于生计动态转换视角,采用生存分析法探讨了影响精准脱贫户家庭生计可持续风险率的关键因素:因能力、教育、环境致贫的精准脱贫户在脱贫后生计稳定性较好,分别为3. 423、2. 750、2. 642 a,心理因素致贫的可持续生计的生存时间较短,生理因素致贫的生计稳定的生存时间最短,仅为1. 876 a。女性户主生计稳定持续时间(1. 841 a)明显低于男性户主(2. 792 a)。对生计稳定的精准脱贫户生计动荡的比例风险模型估计结果,与可持续生计评价指标及其权重的直观分析结果基本一致:金融资本、人力资本、自然资本对于精准脱贫可持续生计的重要程度最强,物质资本、社会资本对生计稳定有较大影响。综合分析认为:贫困户脱贫退出后的2年应成为脱贫保障的重点"观察期",在这个期间应重点从人力资本和金融资本积累视角对生计尚欠稳定的精准脱贫户实施后帮扶和追踪支持,帮助精准脱贫户稳步实现可持续生计,让脱贫成效经得起时间的检验。
The livelihood sustainability of targeted poverty-alleviation households has become one of the focused issues in China in the post-poverty period.This paper selected two key attributes including livelihood capital and intergenerational sustainability to construct a modified livelihood sustainability framework,which divided livelihood capital into natural capital,physical capital,human capital,social capital and financial capital,and used future generation education as an element of intergenerational sustainability assessment.On the basis of the large-scale micro-farmer household survey data conducted by the research team of the National Social Science Fund Planning Key Project that was implemented in three times from 2016 to 2017,this paper built the BP neural network to calculate the weights of 24 indexes of sustainable livelihoods.The predictions of sustainable livelihood indexes in poverty-stricken areas showed that the pre-poverty households in Gansu,Shanxi had strong sustainability,and the sustainable livelihood indexes were 4.288 and 4.161 respectively.The pre-poverty households in Yunnan,Jiangxi and Chongqing were relatively stable,and the difference in sustainable livelihood index was small and exceeded 3.6.The sustainable livelihood scores of pre-poverty households in Sichuan and Hunan were 3.377 and 3.135,which meant the livelihood levels were low;the sustainable livelihood index in Guizhou was 2.953,which showed the livelihood of pre-poverty households was fragile.Based on the perspective of livelihood dynamics conversion,this paper used the survival analysis method to explore the key factors affecting the sustainable risk rate of households lifted out of poverty:those households who fell into poverty because of capacity,education and the environment have better livelihood stability after the precision anti-poverty program and the stable phases were 3.423,2.750 and 2.642 respectively.The survival time of sustainable livelihoods with psychological factors for poverty was short,and the survival time of physiological factors that caused poverty was the shortest,only 1.876 years.Meanwhile,the stable duration of female-headed households(1.841)was significantly lower than that of male heads(2.792).The estimation of the proportional hazards model for the livelihood turbulence of pre-poverty households was basically consistent with the results of the direct analysis and their weights for sustainable livelihoods:financial capital,human capital and natural capital were the most important for sustainable livelihood of targeted poverty-alleviation households;material capital and social capital have a greater impact on livelihood stability.According to the comprehensive analysis,the two years after anti-poverty program should be the focus of the‘observation period’.During this period,relevant departments should focus on providing unstable livelihood households with requisite help and tracking support from the perspective of human capital and financial capital accumulation and help targeted poverty-alleviation households out of poverty to achieve sustainable livelihoods steadily,so that the effectiveness of poverty alleviation can stand the test of time.
作者
孙晗霖
刘新智
张鹏瑶
SUN Han-lin;LIU Xin-zhi;ZHANG Peng-yao(Agricultural Education and Development Research Center,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期145-155,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金规划项目"农村土地流转中三权分置权利关系及实现研究"(批准号:15BJY085)
重庆市人文社科重点研究基地重点项目"乡村振兴背景下精准脱贫户可持续生计的实现机制研究"(批准号:18SKB019)
西南大学2017年度"党的十九大精神"研究重大科研专项"乡村振兴进程中农民集体财产性权益实现研究"(批准号:SWU1709746)
中央高校基本科研基金项目"贫困地区精准脱贫户生计可持续性研究"(批准号:SWU1709402)
中央高校基本科研经费重大项目"农村集体经营性资产确权
股份合作制改革与农户财产性收入增长研究"(批准号:SWU1709210)
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目"易地扶贫搬迁脱贫户生计可持续研究--以重庆市酉阳县为例"(批准号:201810635072)
关键词
贫困地区
精准脱贫户
可持续生计
动态风险
poverty-stricken area
pre-poor household
sustainable livelihood
dynamic risk
