摘要
目的研究宁波市气温对居民流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)发病影响。方法采用时间序列的分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM),控制时间长期趋势、星期几效应、大气污染和其它气象因素等混杂因素,分析2011—2016年宁波市日均气温与居民每日ILI发病风险的关系。结果宁波市日均气温与每日ILI发病人数的关系曲线呈"V"型,最小发病效应温度为26.0℃;ILI发病存在一定的冷效应和热效应,滞后21d累积效应的RR(95%CI)分别为2.771(95%CI:1.806~4.250)和1.419(95%CI:1.137~1.772)。结论高温和低温均可增加宁波市居民ILI发病风险,应采取有效预防措施加强对脆弱人群的保护,降低ILI发病风险。
Objective To study the effects of ambient temperature on influenza-like illness（ILI） in Ningbo. Methods To evaluate the impacts of average daily ambient temperature on the incidence of daily ILI cases in Ningbo from 2011 to 2016 by using time series-distributed lag non-linear model（DLNM）, after controlling for long-term trend of ILI, ＂days of the week＂and other confounding factors such as air pollutions and other meteorological factors. Results The curve of daily average temperature and daily ILI incidence in Ningbo showed as ＂V＂ shape, with the minimum-mortality temperature（MMT） of 26 ℃.The temperature had a cold and thermal impact on ILI, with a lagged 21-day cumulative effect,the related values of RR were 2.771（95%CI： 1.806-4.250） and 1.419（95%CI： 1.137-1.772） respectively. Conclusion Both high temperature and low temperature can increase the incidence of ILI in Ningbo. Effective prevention measures should be taken to strengthen the protection of vulnerable population and control the risk of ILI.
作者
陈奕
陆蓓蓓
劳旭影
易波
王思嘉
许国章
CHEN Yi;LU Bei-bei;LAO Xu-ying;YI Bo;WANG Si-jia;XU Guo-zhang(Department of Acute Communicable Disease Control,Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315010,China)
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第4期287-290,共4页
Journal of Environment and Health
基金
浙江省卫生厅医学重点学科"现场流行病学"项目(07-013)
宁波市重点科技创新团队项目(2012B82018)
关键词
气温
流感样病例
分布滞后非线性模型
归因风险
Ambient temperature
Influenza-like illness
Distributed lag non-linear time series model
Attribution risk
