摘要
目的了解上海市黄浦区流感病例时空分布特征。方法以居委为单位开展2013-2018年流感发病率时空聚集分析。利用ArcGIS 10.1建立流感空间数据库,进行全局和局部空间自相关分析。利用SaTScan 9.6对流感病例进行时空聚集分析。结果2013-2018年,纳入分析流感病例2616例,年均发病率为67.07/10万,各年发病率依次为28.70/10万、75.79/10万、102.13/10万、53.77/10万、85.10/10万、56.28/10万,呈上升趋势(χ趋势^2=20.09,P<0.001)。冬季发病率最高(38.51/10万),其次是夏季(14.78/10万),不同季节发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=1581.26,P<0.001)。小东门街道发病率最高(248.32/10万),外滩街道(8.17/10万)最低。空间自相关分析显示,黄浦区流感发病存在空间正相关,发病率高值聚集区域主要位于小东门街道及其邻近街道部分居委。时空聚集分析显示以流感监测点医院为中心,向周边形成2个聚集区域。结论黄浦区流感病例存在空间聚集,建议进一步探索聚集原因。
Objective To explore spatial-temporal distribution of influenza cases in Huangpu district.Methods Spatialtemporal cluster analysis was performed to study clusters of influenza incidence by residential committees in Huangpu district from 2013 to 2018.ArcGIS 10.1 was utilized to establish influenza database and perform global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.SaTScan 9.6 was used to scan and detect influenza clusters.Results From 2013 to 2018,a total of 2616 confirmed influenza cases were included,resulting the average incidence of 67.07/105,the annual incidence was 28.70/105,5.79/105,102.13/105,53.77/105,85.10/105,56.28/105,showing an ascending trend(χtrend^2=20.09,P<0.001).The incidence in winter seasons(38.51/105)was the highest,followed by summer seasons(14.78/105);the incidences among different seasons were statistically significant(χ^2=1581.26,P<0.001).Xiaodongmen Community got the highest influenza incidence(248.32/105)while Waitan Community got the lowest incidence(8.17/105).Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that influenza cases had significant positive spatial correlation.The hotspots mainly located in Xiaodongmen Communities and other communities within its neighbouring residential blocks.Spatial-temporal cluster analysis indicated that there were 2 influenza clusters of when influenza sentinel hospitals were defined as 0 center.Conclusion Influenza cases cluster in Huangpu district;further studies are required to expolre the causes.
作者
王怡珺
毛宇明
沈福杰
舒敏
任宏
赵根明
WANG Yi-jun;MAO Yu-ming;SHEN Fu-jie;SHU Min;REN Hong;ZHAO Gen-ming(Huangpu District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200023,China;不详)
出处
《江苏预防医学》
CAS
2020年第3期283-285,共3页
Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
上海市卫计委课题(20184y0192)
上海市黄浦区区科委项目(HKW201625)。
关键词
流感
空间自相关
热点分析
时空聚集
Influenza
Spatial autocorrelation
Hotspot analysis
Spatial-temporal cluster
