摘要
为了响应四川省交通运输行业节能减排工作的深入推进，基于对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI），构建四川省交通运输业碳排放驱动因子分解模型，定量测算了四川省2000—2015年交通运输行业碳排放变化的主要影响因素及各因素贡献率。结果表明：目前，四川省交通运输业碳排放量对运输结构变化最为敏感，其中由于公路运输承担周转量比例最大，单位周转量耗能水平高，成为行业碳排放的主要来源；交通运输业经济发展水平和人口规模对碳排放总量的影响程度较强；能耗效率的提高对碳排放表现为抑制作用。未来，综合运输系统结构的完善和新能源交通的普及，将有利于进一步挖掘四川省交通运输行业的节能减排潜力。
In order to further promote energy conservation and emission reduction in Sichuan Province transportation industry, based on the LMDI Decomposition Method, we construct the contribution rate decomposition model of transportation industry in Sichuan Province, to make a quantitative analysis of the main driving factors of carbon emissions in the transportation in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that the change of carbon emissions in Sichuan Province is most sensitive to the change of transportation structure. Among them, road transportation is the main source of carbon emissions in Sichuan Province due to the largest proportion of turnovers undertaken and the high energy consumption per unit turnover. The level of transportation industry economic development and the population size have an increasingly important impact on carbon emissions in Sichuan Province transportation industry. The improvement of energy efficiency has a negative effect on the carbon emissions. In the future, the optimization of the integrated transport system and the popularization of new energy transportation will be conducive to the further excavation of the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in Sichuan Province transportation industry.
出处
《综合运输》
2018年第3期93-99,共7页
China Transportation Review
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15BGL003)
关键词
交通运输碳排放
LMDI分解法
节能减排
能源耗费
Transportation industry carbon emission
LMDI decomposition method
Energy conservation and emission reduction
Energy consumption
