摘要
选取2004—2016年中国内地出境17个旅游目的地的客流量数据,基于位序规模理论分析中国内地出境旅游的规模差异和位序规模分布。研究发现:(1)中国内地出境旅游规模增长迅速,但总体发展不平衡,并处于不断扩散的状态。(2)中国内地出境旅游目的地的首位分布明显,中国香港以绝对优势领先;各目的地之间的规模差异逐渐降低。(3)罗特卡模型分析表明,中国内地出境旅游呈位序规模分布并具有单分形性质,其规模和位序分布的空间耦合性较好;齐夫参数q值的变化表明中国内地出境旅游的均衡度不断降低,呈"大分散、小集中"的分布特征。(4)对比理想K值与实际K值可见,中国内地出境旅游在2008—2011年间出现了适度超前发展的现象,但未来仍具有一定的发展潜力。(5)根据中国内地出境旅游各目的地客流量的规模和位序的变化态势可将其分为平稳型、波动型、上升型和衰退型4种形态,并从经济发展水平、对外开放度、国际交通、地缘关系和汇率5个方面进行了影响因素分析。
This paper analyzes the scale differences and rank-size distribution of outbound tourism in China's Mainland,selecting the passenger flow data from the 17 outbound tourism destinations from 2004 to 2016,based on the ordinal scale theory. The research found that:(1) The scale of outbound tourism in China's Mainland is growing rapidly,but the overall development is not balanced and is in a state of constant diffusion.(2) The outbound tourism destination of China's Mainland in the first place is obvious,China's Hongkong is in the absolute leading advantage; the difference between the scale of the destination is gradually reduced.(3) Luoteka model analysis showed that outbound tourism in China's Mainland is rank size distribution and has a single fractal properties and the distribution of the size and rank spatial coupling is good. The variation of Zipf parameter q shows that the equilibrium degree of outbound tourism in China's Mainland is decreasing,which is in the distribution features of large dispersion but small concentration.(4) Compared the ideal value of K with the actual value of K can found that the development of the outbound tourism in China's Mainland has been in a moderate advance from 2008 to 2011,but there is still a certain future development potential.(5) According to the change trend of the scale and level of the passenger flow in the outbound tourism destinations,the destinations can be divided into four kinds including the stable type,the fluctuation type,the rise type and the decline type,and five influencing factors including the level of economic development,the degree of openness,international transportation,geographical relation and exchange rates were analyzed.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期92-97,共6页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家旅游局"万名旅游英才"研究型英才培养项目(WMYC20151058)
陕西省普通高校优势学科建设项目(0602)
陕西省体育局项目(17095)
咸阳师范学院"骨干教师"资助项目(XSYGG201622)
关键词
出境旅游
规模差异
位序规模
中国内地
outbound tourism
scale differences
rank-size distribution
China's Mainland
