摘要
DPSIR-DEA模型在涵盖指标全面的基础上能够重点突出效率,便于不同地区之间进行比较,有利于发现区域间的差异,因地制宜弥补低效率地区的不足。基于此,本文以2003—2015年中国大陆31个省市的省际面板数据为基础,借助驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)方法来构建中国可持续发展能力评价框架,利用熵值法、层次分析法和D-S证据理论合成的方法从主观和客观两个方面对该框架进行量化,基于量化结果利用超效率SBM-DEA模型进行效率计算,并依据经济计量模型对中国可持续发展效率的影响机制进行分析。结果显示:(1)2003—2015年间各省市可持续发展效率整体呈现上升趋势,但各地区效率水平及其变化幅度的差异较为显著;(2)华中和东北地区可持续发展效率评价结果均低于全国平均水平,华北、华南和华东地区可持续发展效率评价结果相对较高,绝大多数年份位于全国平均水平之上,西北和西南大部分地区可持续发展效率评价结果波动不大且处于较低水平;(3)经济发达地区可持续发展效率评价高于经济欠发达地区,产业结构优化地区可持续发展效率评价高于产业结构相对落后地区,沿海地区可持续发展效率评价高于内陆地区;(4)城镇化率、第二产业比重、比较劳动生产率、产业调整系数以及科技从业人数对可持续发展效率的提高具有显著促进作用,而人口密度、耕地面积以及资源消耗压力对可持续发展效率的提高具有显著阻碍作用,工业三废排放量对可持续发展效率的阻碍作用并不显著。最后从各地区可持续发展效率的区域差异以及影响机制两个方面提出相关的政策建议。
The DPSIR-DEA model can focus on the efficiency of the comprehensive index.It is helpful to find the difference between regions and make up for the shortage of low efficiency areas.Therefore,based on the interprovincial panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2015,the framework of China＇s sustainable development capability is constructed by means of the Driving force-Pressure-State-Influence-Response（ DPSIR） method.Entropy method,AHP and DS evidence theory are used to quantify the framework from two aspects： subjective and objective.Based on the quantitative results,using the ultra-efficient SBM-DEA Model to calculate the efficiency of different regions.The mechanism of the impact of sustainable development in China is analyzed according to the measurement model.The results showed that：（1） The efficiency of sustainable development in China ＇s provinces and cities is increasing from 2003 to 2015,but the difference of efficiency level and the change range are significant.（2）The results of sustainable development efficiency evaluation in central and northeastern China are lower than the national average.But the results of sustainable development efficiency evaluation in North China,Northeast China and East China are relatively high,and the vast majority of the year are above the national average level.The results of efficiency evaluation in most parts of northwest and southwest regions are fluctuating and at a low level.（3）The evaluation of the sustainable development efficiency of the economically developed areas is higher than that of the economically underdeveloped areas.The efficiency evaluation of the sustainable development of the industrial structure is higher than that of the inland areas.The evaluation of the sustainable development efficiency of the coastal areas is higher than that of the inland areas.（4）The urbanization rate,the proportion of the second industry,the comparison of labor productivity,industrial adjustment coefficient and the number of skilled workers have a significant effect on the improvement of sustainable development efficiency.But the population density,cultivated land area and resource consumption pressure have a significant effect on the resistance of sustainable development efficiency.The effect of industrial waste disposal on the efficiency of sustainable development is not significant.At the end of the article,the author puts forward some relevant policy suggestions from the regional differences and the impact mechanism of the regional sustainable development efficiency.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第11期1-9,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国地级以上城市科技资源配置效率的时空演化机理与空间效应研究"(批准号:41501141)
中国博士后基金特别资助项目"区域绿色科技资源配置效率的收敛机制与空间溢出效应研究"(批准号:2016T90710)
湖北省软科学面上项目"长江中游城市群创新供需系统的时空协同演化及政策模拟"(批准号:2016ADC068)
武汉大学人文社会科学青年学者学术团队建设计划"我国地域非均衡发展的格局与治理"(批准号:632413100001)
