摘要
阿拉伯剧变后,能够对中东未来政治发展产生根本性、结构性与方向性影响的因素主要有五个方面:其一,中东国家在短期内走完民主化进程的道路,既不现实也无可能;其二,当前情况下,中东国家在政治上实现"良治"比追求民主更紧迫;其三,中东国家发展面临的最现实和最紧迫的挑战是经济发展,对这些国家而言,告别贫困比告别威权在当下显得更为重要;其四,虽然现阶段实现宗教改革并不可能,但作为影响地区变革最重要的历史常量和政治文化因素,伊斯兰教发展的方向应该面向未来,从而起到促进历史进步的作用;其五,在中东实现内部和解对政治发展至关重要,而中东国家未来政治发展的出路在于能否坚定地探索出一条符合自身国情的道路,这也是中东各国在政治层面面临的最大挑战。
Analyzing from the historical perspective,five factors that could exert fundamental,structural and directional impacts on the future political development of the Middle East,which has experienced the Arab upheaval,are as follows: First,the process of political democratization tookWestern countries 300 to 400 years with countless bloody clashes. Hence, it is unrealistic and impossible to expect Middle East countries to achieve this goal in a short term. Second,given current condition,it is more urgent for the Middle East to pursue good governance other than democracy.Third,the most realistic and urgent challenge ahead of the Middle East still lies in its economy and economic society. In fact, it's more important for this region to get rid of poverty rather than authoritarian governments. Fourth,although it is impossible to carry out religious reform at this stage to Islam,as the most important historical constant and political and cultural factor influencing this region,the future development of this religion should meet the trend of times instead of returning to the past,so could it play a positive role in historical process.
出处
《阿拉伯世界研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期75-89,共15页
Arab World Studies
基金
2013年度国家社科基金项目"近代以来埃及宗教与政治关系的历史考察"(13BSS004)
2010年度国家社科基金重大招标项目"非洲阿拉伯国家通史研究"(10&ZD115)的阶段性成果
2012年度内蒙古高校"青年科技英才计划(青年科技领军人才)"建设项目的资助
关键词
阿拉伯剧变
威权政治
民主化转型
伊斯兰主义
Arab Upheavals
Authoritarian Politics
Democratic Transformation
Islamism
