摘要
本文从改革风险的角度研究转型方式的决定问题,以宪法性秩序是否崩溃为线索,将中俄为代表的两种转型方式概括为转型的平滑模式和突变模式,提出了转型方式综合因素决定理论,具体指出了转型的初始条件和改革策略各自在转型方式决定中的作用。制约着改革策略选择的初始条件包括原计划体制的结构、外部环境、改革时机三个因素,三者的交集决定着改革的策略空间。能够直接决定转型方式的改革策略,包括寻求改革“合法性”的处理方式、改革时序安排、掌握改革主导权、对社会利益分化的调控四个方面。中国在前三个方面都采取了正确的策略并且已经取得成功,但是第四个方面的风险正在积聚和加大。
We study decisions on transition modes from the perspective of the risks associated with reform. Transitions are classified as smooth or abrupt, as represented respectively by China and Russia and as indicated by the maintenance or collapse of constitutional order. On this basis, we propose a theory of synthetic factors that determine the type of transition, and discuss the roles of initial conditions and reform strategies in determining each type of transition. The initial conditions that constrain the selection of reform strategies include the institutional structure of the planned economy, the external environment, and the timing of reform. The interplay of the three factors determines the space for reform strategies. Reform strategies directly determine the mode of transition in four areas: the way in which the legitimacy of reform is handled, the time sequence of reform, the source of the reform initiative, and control of the polarization of social interests. While China has taken correct and successful strategies in the first three areas, it is faced with a growing accumulation of risks in the last area.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第1期71-82,共12页
Social Sciences in China
