摘要
针对传统任务维修性评估方法不能有效估算特定任务剖面内装备总体维修时间问题,提出一种可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法。采用贝叶斯更新理论对功能单元维修时间概率密度函数进行更新;通过仿真加拟合的方式对可修单元组合各故障事件排除概率进行计算。示例分析表明:该方法不仅能解决因数据不完全统计因素引发的功能单元概率密度函数估计不准确的问题,而且能更加便捷地计算多个函数的卷积;任务维修度评估结果更加可信。
The traditional mission maintainability evaluation method cannot effectively estimate the overall maintenance time of equipment in specific task profile. An evaluation method which can be used to evaluate the mission maintainability of repairable unit constitution is proposed. During evaluation,the maintenance time probability density function of functional unit is estimated using a Bayesian updating approach,and the maintainability of failure event of repairable unit constitution is calculated in a simulation way. The example analysis shows that the proposed method may not only solve the estimated inaccuracy of maintenance time probability density function of functional unit due to incomplete statistical data,but also calculate the convolution of multiple functions conveniently. The assessed result of mission maintainability is more credible.
出处
《兵工学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第11期2058-2065,共8页
Acta Armamentarii
基金
武器装备预先研究项目(2011JJ1105)
关键词
兵器科学与技术
可修单元组合
任务维修度
贝叶斯更新
故障事件
ordnance science and technology
repairable unit constitution
mission maintainability
Bayesian updating
failure event
