摘要
利用松花江流域水文站1957-2006年的径流量,采用游程理论、Eviews统计软件以及Copula函数对松花江流域水文干旱特征以及水文干旱联合概率分布特征进行了研究。结果表明:Eviews统计软件能够较好地得出时间序列符合的概率密度函数;G-H Copula函数以及Clayton Copula函数能够较好地拟合2个变量(干旱历时、干旱烈度)的独立分布;Copula函数能够考虑水文干旱的极值,对于分析松花江流域水文干旱联合概率分布是适用的。
Based on observed runoff data of several significant hydro-junctions on Songhuajiang River Basin from 1957-2006, the hydrological drought characteristics and the hydrological drought ioint probability distribution characteristics are studied by using Run Theory, Eviews statistics software and Copula function. The results show that Eviews statistics software can better get the probability density function accorded with the time series; G-H Copula and Clayton Copula can fit the dependence of the two variables, namely hydrological drought duration and drought deficit volume, pretty well; using the Copula approach to model hydrological drought can put different variables of extreme drought events into consideration and this approach can serve as a useful tool for hydrological drought analysis.
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2014年第5期38-42,47,共6页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120061120075)
中国科学院重点部署项目(KSZD-EW-Z-021)
关键词
松花江流域
水文干旱
干旱历时
干旱烈度
概率密度函数
联合概率分布
Songhuajiang River basin
hydrological drought
drought duration
drought deficit volume
probability density function
ioint probability distribution
