摘要
本文采用王重建的２２３２ａ降水长序列运用Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程理论分析了中原各地区旱涝等级的概率特征；定义了净旱涝历时、净旱涝烈度、平均净旱涝烈度参量，并用之建立了中原中心区降水的丰枯段等级预测模式。为中原地区旱涝分析和预测提供了理论依据。
This paper analyzed the probability features of drought and flood grade in Zhongyuan Region(ZR) by using Markov chain theory and 2232-year precipitation data reestablished by Wang Chun. It defined the net duration, the net intensity and the mean net intensity of drought and flood.By means of the above obtained variables,it gave the prediction model of drought and flood of long-term precipitation in the inner part of ZR.It provideda theoretical basis for the analysis and prediction of drought and flood in ZR.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
1994年第3期34-38,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
关键词
中原地区
旱涝预测
游程理论
降水
Run, Drought and flood duration,Net drought and flood duration,Net drought and flood intensity,Mean net drought and flood intensity, Zhongyuan region
