摘要
针对气象干旱问题,本文基于可变模糊理论,构建干旱识别体系;引入前期降水影响系数,修正干旱过程;采用游程理论分析不同程度下的干旱发生概率,并利用各程度下的平均干旱强度量化干旱损失,建立气象干旱风险评价模型。以淮河流域为例,进行气象干旱风险评价。结果表明:在干旱历时小于3个月时,淮河流域西南部和东北部的气象干旱风险较高,在干旱历时大于3个月时,"王蚌区间北岸"的北部地区和"湖西区"的西北部地区,风险最高。
Aiming at the meteorological drought problem,this paper constructs a drought identification system based on the variable fuzzy theory,introduces the pre-precipitation influence coefficient to correct the drought process,analyzes the probability of drought in various degrees based on run-length theory and quantifies the drought loss with the average drought intensity to set up a meteorological drought risk assessment model. Taking the Huaihe river basin as an example,the risk assessment of meteorological drought shows that when the duration of drought is less than three months,the risk of meteorological drought is high in the southwestern and northeastern Huaihe River basins otherwise,the risk comes to the highest in north area of ＇the section between Wangjiaba and Bengbu and ‘west area of ＇the northwest section of Nansi Lake＇.
作者
颜敏
方国华
闻昕
晋恬
YAN Min1, FANG Guohua1, WEN Xin1,2 JIN Tian1(1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing lO0038,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2018年第1期236-241,共6页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900)
国家自然科学基金项目(51609061)
关键词
可变模糊理论
干旱过程修正
游程理论
气象干旱风险
气象干旱风险评价
variable fuzzy theory
drought correction
run-length theory
meteorological drought risk
risk evaluation of metorolgical drought
