摘要
随着我国房价快速上涨,金融信贷规模进一步扩张,如何对房价进行调控,维护金融稳定成为亟需解决的问题。论文利用上海市2008年1月至2012年12月的月度数据,采用协整分析技术和向量误差修正模型方法对上海市金融信贷规模与房地产价格之间关系进行实证研究,避免了以往利用全国数据进行研究时固有的区域差异问题。上海市作为我国经济发展最发达的城市,其房地产市场、金融市场最具有代表性,研究结果也更具前瞻性。研究结果表明金融信贷规模与房地产价格从长期来看互为负向反馈作用,而在短期中,二者表现出正向反馈的推动作用。
With China＇s rapidly rising house prices and further expanding the scale of financial credit, how to regulate prices and safeguard financial stability become an urgent problem. In this paper, we use monthly data of Shanghai from January 2008 to December 2012 and cointegration techniques and vector error correction model to study the relationship between Shanghai real estate prices and the financial credit scale. Shanghai as the most economically developed cities in China, the real estate market and the financial market is the most representative, and the findings are also more forward-looking. The results show that the scale of financial credit and real estate prices in the long term mutually negative feedback, but both showed positive feedback role in the short term.
出处
《财务与金融》
2014年第1期27-32,共6页
Accounting and Finance
关键词
金融信贷
房地产价格
协整分析
向量误差修正
Financial Credit
Real Estate Prices
Cointegration
Vector Error Correction Model
