摘要
水库防洪特征水位的选择是水利工程设计中极为重要的一个环节，通过对特征水位推求方法的现状分析，指出了假定防洪安全标准等于洪水设计标准缺乏必要的依据这一基本论点，给出了防洪安全风险计算的原则、方法及其适用性条件，认为受人类活动影响的序列不能满足一般的理论分布函数，而随机模拟方法是解决此类问题的最有效的途径．针对三峡水库的防洪安全风险计算，证明了三峡工程采用1981，1982，1954年典型设计洪水过程线推术防洪特征水位是偏于安全的，同时亦存在相应的风险．
It is important to evaluate flood protection risk for dam design and management. Because of diffi-cult when using theoretical analysis, Monte-Carlo stochastic simulation is adopted in this study, with evalua-tion criterion'method and application conditions given- It also reveals that the assumption of flood protectionstandard equaling to that of design flood may be not proper for such evaluation. Finally, flood protection riskfor Three Gorges dam, as an actual example, is evaluated and it is demonstrated that application of 1981, 1982and 1954 type design flood hydrographs may lead to over sa fty for the dam, although the risk exists.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第2期39-42,共4页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
关键词
防洪安全
风险
三峡水库
设计洪水
设计
flood protection, risk, stochastic simulation, the Three Gorges Project
