摘要
在典型高速公路隧道群路段交通事故调查的原始数据基础上,建立事故灰色预测模型,并利用残差模型对其修正,分析隧道群路段交通事故发展变化趋势。通过引入马尔可夫模型进行优化,提高预测精度。与目前常规交通事故预测方法相比,本文方法在一定时段内具有更好的预测精度和实用性,可为高速公路隧道群路段交通事故预测分析及交通安全预警提供参考。
Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can De used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region.
出处
《吉林大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期62-67,共6页
Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition
基金
浙江省重大科技专项和优先主题项目(2010C13029)
浙江省交通厅科技计划项目(2007H38)
关键词
交通运输安全工程
高速公路隧道群
事故预测
灰色模型
马尔可夫优化
transportation safety engineering
highway tunnel group
traffic accident forecast
grey model
Markov optimization
