摘要
将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫理论相结合,建立道路交通事故死亡人数灰色马尔可夫预测模型。道路交通事故死亡人数灰色马尔可夫预测既有灰色预测的优点,同时又有马尔可夫链的优点。通过对昆明城市的实际例子的计算,可以看到,在道路交通事故死亡人数预测中,灰色马尔可夫预测模型精确度比较好,有较好的预测结果。
The Markov chains and the grey model are integrated .The Markov chains forecast method is presented in this paper and the grey-markov model for forecasting road accidents is built. The model has the merits of both grey forecasting and Matkov chains forecasting which reduces random fluctuation of accident data affecting forecasting precision .Form an example in Kunming,we can see that the precision of grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is a batter way,the model can get a good result.
出处
《广东交通职业技术学院学报》
2006年第1期30-32,共3页
Journal of Guangdong Communication Polytechnic
