摘要
选取2000—2010年我国西北地区(陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆)5个省区能源消费数据和经济数据作为样本数据,根据IPCC碳排放计算指南,测算出西北各地区的碳排放量;采用脱钩理论对西北地区碳排放与经济增长脱钩状态进行分析,运用LMDI分解方法构建碳排放因素分解模型深入研究其驱动因素。研究结论显示,2001—2010年西北地区经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态趋于不稳定状态,其中2002年、2004年为强脱钩,2001年、2007年、2009年、2010年为弱脱钩,2003年、2005年、2008年为扩展性负脱钩,2006年为增长连接;经济规模持续扩大是西北地区碳排放快速增长的关键因素,能源强度下降是抑制西北地区碳排放增长的主要因素,产业结构优化升级和能源结构调整是控制碳排放增加的潜在因素。
The issue of carbon emission became one of the important topics in the academic study. This paper intended to discuss the issue by taking 5 provinces and autonomous regions in the Northwest of China as a research object. According to the IPCC emissions calculation guidelines to measure the northwest regional carbon emissions and by using decoupling theory to analyze the carbon emissions and economic growth of the Northwest decoupled state, used LMDI decomposition method to build carbon emission factor decomposition model to further study its driving factors. The authors selected the energy consumption data and economic data as sample data from China Energy Statistical Year Book and China Statistical Year Book dur- ing the period of 2001 -2010. Based on the analysis, they found that from 2001 to 2010, the northwest regional＇s economic growth and carbon emis- sions decoupling state tended to be unstable, which was strong decoupling in year 2002,2004 and 2001,2007,2009,2010 was the weak decoupling, 2003,2005, 2008 was negative decoupling of extensibility, 2006 was growth connected. The rapid growth of economic scale was a major factor leading to increased carbon emissions. Energy intensity fell showed significant negative effects to the contribution rate of carbon emissions and optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and energy structure was the underlying factor controlling carbon emissions increase.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2013年第12期1243-1246,共4页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40771054)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金联合赞助项目(编号:20106203110002)
西北师范大学知识与科技创新团队项目(编号:nwnu-kjcxgc-03-50)
关键词
碳排放
脱钩
LMDI分解法
西北地区
carbon emission
decoupling
LMDI decomposition method
northwestern region
