摘要
随着社会经济的快速发展,能源消耗和环境问题日益严重,保持经济增长的同时减少碳排放是江苏省面对外部减排压力和实现自身可持续发展的必然选择和迫切需要。为此,本文分析了2002年-2008年江苏省土地承载碳排放的变化情况,采用LMDI分解法探讨了土地承载碳排放变化的影响因素,并基于因素分解结果建立"脱钩"努力指标来考察政府减排努力取得的经济增长与碳排放的"脱钩"效果。研究发现,2002年-2008年江苏省土地承载碳排放总体持续增加,只有能源强度因素对土地承载碳排放表现为负效应,其他几种正效应因素对碳排放增加的贡献值由大到小依次为土地产出>产业结构>能源碳排放强度>土地规模>能源结构,且能源强度效应抑制碳排放的作用有限,江苏省实现碳减排任重道远;2002年-2008年年间政府的减排努力达到的"脱钩"效果不理想,但有效缩小了碳排放增加快于经济增长的差距,使得年度上脱钩程度有所改善。
With the rapid socio-economic development,energy consumption and environmental problems have become increasingly serious,so reducing carbon emissions while maintaining economic growth is the inevitable choice for Jiangsu province to face the external pressure of emission reduction as well as the urgent need to achieve its sustainable development.Therefore,from the perspective of industry energy consumption carrying by land,this article has analyzed the changes of land carrying carbon emissions in Jiangsu province from 2002 to 2008.On this basis,the study has explored the main factors that affect the changes of land carrying carbon emissions with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）method,and further established the＂decoupling＂ effort indicators based on factor decomposition results to assess the actual effects of governments’ efforts of reducing carbon emissions.The goal is to find the effective ways and measures to achieve a win-win economic growth and carbon emission reduction.The results show that：1）Land carrying carbon emissions of Jiangsu province have maintained an increasing trend during 2002 and 2008,with carbon emissions carrying by construction land accounting for more than 95%of the total;2）The order of positive effect factors which contribute to land carrying carbon emissions ’increase is as follows：land output〉industrial structure〉carbon emission intensity of energy〉 land scale〉energy structure;the energy intensity’s role in inhibiting the increase of carbon emissions is limited,so there is a long way to go to achieve the target of carbon emissions reduction for Jiangsu province;3）The＂decoupling＂effect that the governments try to achieve through carbon emissions reduction is not satisfactory during the study period,but the decoupling degree between economic growth and land carrying carbon emissions has been improved year by year due to reduction in energy intensity and gradual transformation of economic development models.Finally,some shortages of this research as well as suggestions for further studies on more detailed relationships between land use structures and carbon emissions have been put forward in this paper.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期1108-1118,共11页
Resources Science
基金
江苏省国土资源科技项目(编号:201003
201026)
江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(编号:CXZZ11_0690)
教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(编号:NCET-10-0494)
中央高校基本科研业务费自主创新重点研究项目(编号:Y0201100272)
关键词
经济增长
碳排放
因素分解
脱钩效应
江苏省
Economic growth； Carbon emissions； Factor decomposition； Decoupling effect； Jiangsu province
