摘要
新世纪以来中国工业转型特征明显,行业CO2排放强度呈波动下降走势,但2003年工业再度重型化和2008年金融危机导致排放强度明显上升。基于改进的STIRPAT模型,本文利用动态面板数据实证研究了工业碳排放的影响因素,并详细考察了中国工业CO2库兹涅茨曲线(CKC)的类型及成因。主要结论是:中国工业CKC呈"N型"走势,而非传统的"倒U型",即CO2排放与经济增长在倒U型走势之后又形成拐点,出现"重组"现象;投资规模与排放显著正相关,研发强度不是影响排放的主要因素,CO2排放是个动态调整过程,存在明显的滞后效应;政府节能减排政策有助于降低排放,减排治理政策应从产业结构、技术进步、宏观经济环境以及环境规制等多方面综合考虑。
This paper constructs the panel data of China＇s 36 sub2 industries between 2000 and 2009,analyzes the industries＇ transformation character.The industrial emission intensity of CO2 decline and fluctuate from 2000 to 2009,but it ascends after 2003 and 2008.Further,we analyze the factors that influence industry＇s CO2 emission through using extensive ＂Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology Model＂ with dynamic panel data,then investigate the type of Chinese industrial CKC and the reason of its formation.We find that investment scale may increase emission,while research and development has not decreased emission significantly.The emission that is a continuous and dynamic adjustment behaves hysteresis effect.The Chinese industry＇s CKC behaves N-shape not traditional inverted-U,the economic development and environmental pressure will enter a phase of relinking after inverted-U.The government＇s policy helps to decrease emission.The government＇s policy helps to decrease emission.Emission governance measures should take industrial structure,technology progress,macro economic environment,environmental regulation into account.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期26-35,共10页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目"应对国际资源环境变化挑战与加快我国经济发展方式转变研究"(批准号09&ZD021)
