摘要
选用昆明市日气象资料、松华坝水源区降水资料,结合水源区土壤及土地利用数据,建立松华坝水源区SWAT模型.分别用水源区牧羊河流域中和站及冷水河流域白邑站的月径流资料对模型进行参数率定和验证.结合IPCC的A1F1、B1气候变化情景以及15种假定气候情景,以1993～1999年为基准期,用率定好的SWAT模型预估未来变化情景下松华坝水源区两流域径流变化.结果表明,在A1F1和B1情景下牧羊河流域径流相对基准期分别减少6.7％和5.3％,而冷水河流域径流变化不大;另外,水源区温度升高1℃,牧羊河和冷水河径流分别减少9.6％和1.53％;若降水增加10％,则牧羊河和冷水河径流分别增加22.55％和13.9％.这一结果为未来变化情景下水源区水资源调度管理提供依据.
Combined with the daily meteorological data from the Kunming station,daily precipitation and runoff data from the Songhuaba Water Source Area,and the data of land use,and soil,a SWAT hydrological model was built for the water source area.Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed using the monthly runoff data from the Zhonghe Station in the Muyang Basin and the Baiyi Station in the Lengshui Basin.The calibrated and validated SWAT model was used to predict the runoff variation of the Songhuaba Water Source Area under A1F1,B1 and 15 hypothesis scenarios.The results show that the mean annual flow under A1F1 and B1 scenarios respectively decreased by 9.6％ and 5.3％ in the Muyang Basin while there was big change of the mean annual flow in the Lengshui Basin.In the Muyang Basin and Lengshui Basin,moreover,the mean annual flow will respectively decrease by 9.6％ and 1.53％ if the temperature increase by 1℃,and the mean annual flow will respectively increase by 22.55％ and 13.9％ when the precipitation increase by 10％.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期64-69,80,共7页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
水利部公益性行业专项经费项目(201001058
201101042)
关键词
变化情景
径流变化
松华坝水源区
change scenarios
runoff variation
Songhuaba water source area
