摘要
为了解清远地区近几十年降水变化特征,更加科学地管理和利用水资源,基于清远市内6个代表水文站1970—2019年的降水实测资料,采用滑动平均法、Mann-kendall检验法以及Morlet小波分析法等分析研究清远市年降水量趋势变化、突变情况以及周期特征。结果表明:清远站与珠坑站年降水量整体呈现减少趋势,而大庙峡站、英德站、阳山站以及连县站呈现增加趋势,但变化趋势不显著;清远站和英德站的下降突变发生在1975年左右,大庙峡站和连县站的下降突变发生在2015年左右,珠坑站的下降突变发生在1982年左右,阳山站发生了2次下降突变,分别在1973年以及2015年左右;各站点降水序列有着较明显的丰枯交替特征,其降水主周期有3~4个,第一、第二主周期一般为22 a或15 a,第三、第四主周期一般为7 a或3 a;2015年后各站点年降水量转为减少趋势,目前清远地区处于降水偏少期。
In order to understand the variation characteristics of precipitation in Qingyuan City in recent decades,and realize the scientific management and utilization of water resources,based on the measured precipitation data of six representative hydrologic stations in Qingyuan from 1970 to 2019,this paper analyzes and studies the trend change,sudden change and periodic characteristics of annual precipitation in Qingyuan by moving average method,Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results show that:The annual precipitation of Qingyuan Station and Zhukeng Station showed a decreasing trend,while that of Damiaoxia Station,Yingde Station,Yangshan Station and Lianxian Station showed an increasing trend,but the change was not significant.The sudden drop occurred around 1975 for Qingyuan Station and Yingde Station,around 2015 for Damiaoxia Station and Lianxian Station,around 1982 for Zhukeng Station.and around 1973 and 2015 for Yangshan Station.The precipitation series of each station has obvious alternation of wet and dry seasons.There are 3 to 4 main periods of precipitation at each station.The first and second main periods are generally 22 or 15 years,and the third and fourth main periods are generally 7 or 3 years.After 2015,the annual precipitation at each station turned into a decreasing trend.Currently,Qingyuan is in a period of low precipitation.
作者
刘旋旋
LIU Xuanxuan(Qingyuan Branch of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Qingyuan 511500,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2021年第6期77-84,共8页
Pearl River
关键词
降水
趋势分析
突变检测
周期分析
清远市
precipitation
trend analysis
mutation detection
period analysis
Qingyuan City
