摘要
以拉萨水文站上游流域为研究对象,利用分布式水文模型SWAT对拉萨河流域水文过程进行模拟,分别用1995～2000和2003～2006年两个时间段的实测数据对模型进行校准和验证。结果显示月径流模拟相关系数和模拟效率系数分别为0.88和0.84。在此基础上通过建立情景模拟,探讨拉萨河流域气候波动和土地覆被变化对径流产流量的影响。结果表明:气候变化对年径流量影响显著,在各种模拟假设情景中最多可以使径流量增加89%。土地覆被变化相对于气候变化对径流量的年际影响较弱,但对径流量的季节变化影响显著。
The distributed hydrological model SWAT was used to simulate the hydrological processes in the Lhasa River Basin upstream of the Lhasa hydrological station. Observed data from the Lhasa hydrological station from 1995 - 2000 and 2003-2006 were used to calibrate and validate the model, respectively. The correlation coefficient （R2） and simulation efficiency factor （ENS） of monthly simulation were 0.88 and 0.84, respectively. On this basis, scenario simulations of different land cover and climate change were established. Results showed that the climate effect was the dominant factor in annual runoff. The greatest increase of runoff in the various simulated scenarios was 89%. Land cover change had a moderate impact on annual runoff, but strongly influenced seasonal runoff.
出处
《水资源保护》
CAS
2010年第2期39-44,共6页
Water Resources Protection
基金
欧盟FP6-SUSTDEV项目(BRAHMATWINN036592)
中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX2-YW-449)
