摘要
能源技术成本的动态变化影响着能源技术的应用、推广及全球能源供给格局;通过分析能源技术成本变化影响因素及其动态变化路径,构建分阶段模型研究能源技术发展中的学习效应,对于完善能源技术发展理论及制定科学而经济的能源产业政策具有一定的理论和实际意义。通过总结对比四种基于学习曲线的能源技术成本模型,分析各因素的内涵及相互关系,选择累计研发与累计产量作为研究变量。通过分析推演累计产量与累计研发共同作用下的能源技术成本动态变化路径,及其在动态变化过程中不同时期影响因素的结构性变化,构建分阶段的能源技术成本学习曲线模型;利用构建的分阶段学习曲线模型对风力发电、太阳光电、水力发电和燃料电池4种能源技术进行研究,得出不同发展阶段各能源技术的累计研发与累计产量的学习效率,揭示了研发、累计产量与能源技术成本间的内在关系。分析学习曲线函数的缺陷,构建一个含有底线参数的新型能源技术成本预测理论模型。
The dynamic change of energy technology cost has impact on its application, promotion and global energy supply pattern. After analyzing factors that could affect the change of energy technology cost and the dynamic change of energy technology cost, a multi- stage model is proposed to research the learning effect in the development of energy technology. The model is very useful to help develop energy technology developing theories and scientific policies regarding the energy industry. We review literatures regarding energy technology cost, and compare four different models of energy technology cost based on learning curve. According to the analysis of the connotation and relationship of the factors, we find that the scale effect factor is significantly correlated and overlapped with the cumulate capacity factor and the cumulate research and development factor. After discussing price change factor, a general method about choosing and handling energy technology cost factors is proposed. This paper chooses the cumulate capacity factor, and the development factor as research variables. A more accurate and reasonable pathway of dynamic change of energy technology cost is calculated by analyzing literatures on the dynamic change of energy technology cost. This paper examines data collected over twenty years and related to seventeen different energy technologies. A multi-stage energy technology cost model on the basis of learning curve is proposed This paper uses the multi-stage learning curve model to analyze the technology development of wind power, solar photovohaic power, hydroelectricity and fuel cells. Our analysis shows the learning rates of cumulate research ＆ development and cumulate capacity at different stages of development for each energy technology, and reveal the intrinsic relationship among energy technology cost of cumulate research ＆ development as well as cumulate capacity. By analyzing the drawbacks of the learning curve model, a new theoretical learning curve model to study energy technology cost is proposed. Future research may want to adopt a more realistic model to measure variables and understand the dynamic change of energy technology cost on the basis of learning curve theory. Another research direction is to study new energy technology economics by considering tactors, such as technology improvement, the scarcity of non-renewable fossil, and the impact of new energy technology on environment and government subsidies.
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期74-80,共7页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
关键词
能源技术
成本
学习曲线
动态
累计研发
累计产量
energy technology
cost
learning curve
dynamic
cumulate research and development
cumulate capacity
