摘要
以页岩气开发技术应用为代表,通过多目标情景设定,探索性分析中国非常规油气开发领域在技术能力获得的不同发展路径下技术学习率的大小。基于此目标,应用学习曲线理论,以技术发展不同阶段的特征设定技术发展路径,构建单因素学习曲线参数模型,估计非常规油气技术应用在＂生产能力积累＂与＂技术创新突破＂这两种发展路径下的技术学习率。结果表明：多目标情景下,实现中国非常规油气开发的目标规划,要保持较高的技术学习率。具体而言,在生产能力获得并不断积累的技术发展路径下,非常规油气开发技术必须保持3.30%-4.70%的技术学习率;在生产能力积累到创新能力突破的技术发展路径下,非常规油气开发技术在经历早期低水平学习率的适应性发展阶段后,需要保持11.60%-14.90%的高技术学习率。
Chinese government encourages the unconventional resource extraction activity. However, the success in the field of unconventional resource is often attributed to technology progress. Technology applied in practice in China is overall at the early stage of development. There are still many challenges that impede the adaptive development of unconventional technology. In this study the authors investigated the potential technology learning rate under two technological paths based on learning curve theory. With this, the authors took shale gas extraction technology application as a representative of overall technology pattern to estimate one-factor learning curve model where there were two technology developing paths with different phase characteristics of technology capacity. The results reveal that maintaining high technology learning rate is prerequisite to achieve the goal of unconventional oil and gas development planning under multi-objective situations. In other words, under path of technology acquisition and accumulation over time, to accomplish multipurpose depends on at least technology learning rate of 3.30%-4.70%; under path of realizing technology innovation breakthrough based on production capacity accumulation, unconventional oil and gas extraction technology goes through adaptive development stage with lower technology learning rate, after that, technology innovation occurs bringing about high technology learning rate of 11.60%-14.90%.
出处
《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2016年第3期1-12,共12页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"我国非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略研究"(71473193)
国家自然科学基金资助项目"多目标诉求下我国交通节能减排市场导向的政策组合选择研究"(71473155)
关键词
非常规油气
技术学习率
多目标情景
成本分析
unconventional oil and gas
technology learning rate
multi-objective
cost analysis
