摘要
在分析我国水上交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色Verhulst预测理论。由此建立了水上交通事故Verhulst模型,并分别利用该模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国近几年水上交通事故进行了预测,发现该模型精度高,拟合度更优。该模型可用于对我国水上交通事故的预测。
The Grey Verhulst prediction theory and the water traffic accident prediction model are put forward based on the analysis of historic data of water traffic accidents in China.The Verhulst model and GM（1,1） model are used to predict the probability of water traffic accidents in China simultaneously.The results prove that the Verhulst model has higher precision and gives better prediction than that of GM（1,1） model.This model can be used for forecasting the degree of safety of waterways.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期67-69,共3页
Navigation of China
