摘要
对我国的人口增长问题建立了基于状态空间方法的中短期和长期预测模型。在建立模型时,特别关注中国目前的实际情况和人口增长特点,为此在模型中引入几个辅助函数来反映这些特点:引入调节函数来刻画老龄化进程加速对人口增长的影响,引入平滑函数来研究生育率与性别比例对人口增长的作用,引入演进函数来研究乡村人口城镇化速度提升的影响。通过预测,对未来我国人口的老龄化水平、性别比例和城镇化水平的影响进行了分析。
A state space model based on matrix method is established for predicting Chinese population. In order to consider the real population condition, some functions are introduced. Those functions include an adjusted function for the characteristics of the aging, a smoothed function foe the sex ratio and an evaluation function for the level of urbanization, level of aging, sex ration and urbanization in the future are provided by the results of prediction.
出处
《武汉工业学院学报》
CAS
2009年第1期101-105,共5页
Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic University
关键词
人口预测
状态空间模型
人口特征
population prediction
state space model
population characteristic
