摘要
根据广东已处于城市化中后期的现实,利用Logistic模型与修补后的时序数据,对广东城市化中后期转折时点进行判断和论证,发现现阶段广东城市化增长速度开始放缓,转折时点大约出现在2001年～2002年间。运用主成分回归方法,分时段对广东城市化的主要因素进行对比分析,发现城市化的主要影响因素——政府政策、对外开放、城市收入水平、产业结构转换,在城市化的转折发生之后对城市化的推动力有不同程度的减弱。随着城市化速度趋缓,广东将面临巨大的转型压力,依靠城市化扩大内需的政策需适时进行调整。
Based on the fact that the urbanization process of Guangdong has already entered into the midto-late period,this paper uses Logistic Model and updated time series data to define and demonstrate the turning point of the mid-to-late period,and predicts that the speed of Guangdong＇s urbanization process has begun to slow down,and this turning point of this period appears around the year of 2001-2002.It introduces the analytic method of principle component regression to make a comparative analysis on the main factors which impact the process of Guangdong＇s urbanization,and further elaborates why the turning point of urbanization has happened.It finds that the main positive influencing factors include government policies,opening-up,city income level and the transfer of industrial structure,but their driving forces for urbanization have weakened to a different degree after the turning point.Along with the slow-down of urbanization,Guangdong is now facing a great pressure of transformation,and the present policy of expanding domestic demand depending on urbanization needs to be adjusted in time.
出处
《广东商学院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期25-33,共9页
Journal of Guangdong University of Business Studies
关键词
城市化
中后期转折点
主成分回归分析
广东省
urbanization
turning point in the mid-to-late period
the analytic method of principle component regression
Guangdong
