摘要
诺瑟姆提出的城市化S形曲线是城市地理学的经典理论成果,对它在中国的应用却存在曲解。根据诺瑟姆原文,不是所有国家的城市化水平都能达到100%,城市化水平在30%到70%之间也不是一直处于加速状态;进而推导出城市化速度变化的四阶段倒"U"形曲线:孕育阶段、加速阶段、减速阶段、趋零阶段。其政策含义和启示在于:城市化速度变化有其规律,不能拔苗助长;中国已经迈过城市化速度的拐点,加速城市化不应是长期的主旋律;城市化依然是主要发展方向和趋势;中国城市化理念与重点均需转型;城市化与包容性增长、城乡统筹和农民工市民化是"十二五"时期的主要任务。
Northam’s curve of urbanization shaping ＂S＂ is one of the most important classical theories in urban geography.For common misreading about Northam’s curve,this paper compiled original theory contents.The results indicated that the urbanization level can not reach 100% in all the countries;and the urbanization process between 30% and 70% is not always in a state of acceleration.Urbanization rate curve was put forward,which is shaped by an inverted ＂U＂.The evolution of urbanization rate was identified into four stages： embryonic stage,acceleration stage,deceleration stage,approaches zero stage.In different stages the changes have different characteristics.There are five important inspirations for policies： first,the urbanization rate of change has its laws,and cannot pluck up a crop to help it grow;second,China has crossed the turning point,＂accelerated urbanization＂ should not be the main theme of the national long-term development strategy;third,China should maintain the steady development orientation for urbanization;fourth,China’s urban concept and focus should be in transition;fifth,urbanization,inclusive growth,coordinating urban-rural development,as well as migrant labors becoming city and town dwellers are the primary targets during ＂the 12th Five-Year Plan＂ period.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第8期1499-1507,共9页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41001080
41001092
40971076)
关键词
城市化
诺瑟姆曲线
倒“U”形速度曲线
政策启示
urbanization
Northam＇s curve
inverted ＂U＂-shaped rate curve
policy implications
