摘要
以内蒙古地区的锡林河流域为研究对象,采用考虑融雪的水量平衡模型(SWBM模型),在对锡林河流域水文模拟的基础上,评估了流域水资源对气候变化的响应。结果表明:SWBM模型锡林河流域月径流过程具有较好的模拟效果,率定期和检验期的模型效率系数均超过60%,相对误差也均小于8%,在未来全球气候变化背景下,流域水资源以减少趋势为主,2030年之后,减少幅度将可能超过10%。
Taking the Xilinhe River Basin, a dry cold basin located in the Inner Mongolia of China, as a case, a snowmelt-based water balance model （SWBM） was applied to simulate runoff and study climate change impact. The results indicate that SWBM performs well for monthly runoff simulation, Nash - Sutcliffe efficiency （NSEs） in calibration and verification periods are both over 60% while relative error （Res） in both periods are less than 8%. Under global warming, water resources in the Xilinhe River Basin will present decreasing trend with significant decreasing possibly occurred after 2030.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期39-42,50,共5页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
中英瑞气候变化适应项目(ACCC20100202)
国家973气候变化专项计划(2010CB951103)
关键词
水量平衡模型
参数率定
径流模拟
影响评价
water balance model
parameter calibration
runoff simulation
impact assessment
