摘要
水量平衡模型是目前水文及环境分析中最常用的工具和手段。首先介绍了澳大利亚水量平衡模型(AWBM模型)的结构及计算原理,并利用黄河中游伊洛河流域天然时期的降水径流资料对该模型进行了率定;基于天然月流量过程模拟,分析了环境变化对该流域径流量的影响。结果表明:AWBM模型对伊洛河逐月径流过程具有良好的模拟效果,率定期和检验期的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数均在75%以上;20世纪80年代,人类活动和气候变化对径流的影响量相对低于其它时期,就平均而言,降水减少是伊洛河流域径流减少的主要原因,人类活动和降水变化对径流的影响分别占径流减少总量的42%和58%。
Water Balance Model is one of important tools in the modern basin management. Structure and principle of Australia Water Balance Model （AWBM Model） was presented firstly. And the model was calibrated and verified with natural hydro-meteorological data in Yiluohe River basin of the middle Yellow River. Based on simulation for natural monthly discharge at Heishiguan hydrometric station, the impacts of environmental change on runoff at the gauging station were analyzed. And results show that AWBM model has good simulation result for monthly discharge at Heishiguan hydrometric station, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients in calibration period and verification period were both above 75 %. Absolute runoff reductions caused by human activities and climate change in 1980s were lower than that in other periods. Rainfall reduction is main reason of sharply decrease in runoff. And on average, 42% and 58% of total runoff reduction were caused by human activities and climate change.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期297-298,301,共3页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关项目(项目编号:2001-BA611B-02-04)
国家973重点基础研究发展规划项目(编号:G1999043406)联合资助
