摘要
近百年来,全球气候发生了以气温升高为主要特征的显著变化。东北是中国的重要粮食主产区,气候变化将可能加剧东北地区水资源短缺情势,进一步影响到国家的粮食安全。以辽河流域为对象,分析了近60年来降水径流变化特性,采用水文模拟方法,揭示了河川径流变化成因,基于假定气候情景,研究了河川径流量及土壤含水量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:铁岭站实测径流量自20世纪60年代中期以来,总体呈明显的阶段性减少趋势,人类活动是河川径流减少的主要原因。降水增加比减少对河川径流量的影响明显,土壤含水量对降水减少的响应更加敏感,气候暖干化趋势将非常不利于东北地区的水资源利用和农业生产。
The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally,and this would lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions would probably experience reduction in precipitation.The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all the sectors of human endeavor,among which,water resources is the most direct and important sector.North-eastern China is scarce in water resources,while the region is main food source area of China as well.Climate change could probably aggravate the severe situation of shortage in water resources;in further,bring adverse effect on food security of China.The major purpose of the paper is to identify the contributions of human activity and climate change to historical changes in recorded runoff for Liaohe River basin,which is one of the major rivers in China,and exploit hydrological characteristics of Tieling station in response to climate change.Snowmelt-based water balance model（SWBM model） is employed in the study.Results indicate that recorded runoff at Tieling hydrometric station has been decreasing since the late 1960s,especially in the periods from 1966-1984 and 2001-2008,annual runoffs in the two periods decreased by 63.9% and 75.3% respectively comparing to 1951-1965.SWBM model can naturalize monthly runoff of Liaohe River basin with high accuracy.Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients in both calibration period and verification period for the 4 typical catchments are all above 65% while relative errors are less than 3.0%.Human activity plays main role in runoff reduction.During 1966-2008,annual recorded runoff decreased by 54.2% as comparing to 1951-1965,among which,human-induced runoff reduction is about 36.5%,and climate change induced runoff reduction is 17.7%.Increase in precipitation could put higher effect on stream flow than decrease in precipitation does,while soil moisture is more sensitive to precipitation reduction than to precipitation increase.Under the scenario of 10% increase in precipitation and no change in temperature,annual runoff and average soil moisture would increase by 22.4% and 6.5% respectively.If there were no change in precipitation,while temperature increased 1 degree,runoff and soil moisture would decrease by 5.5% and 7.3% respectively.Aridification of climate will extremely be not conducive to sustainable utilization of water resources and agricultural production for North-eastern China.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期433-440,共8页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变化对区域水资源影响评估及不确定性分析"(编号:2010CB951103)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项"河川径流变化归因分析关键技术研究"(编号:Y509004)
中英瑞气候变化适应项目"气候变化对中国全国尺度的水资源影响评估及适应策略研究"(编号:ACCC20100202)资助
关键词
气候变化
径流
辽河
水文响应
Climate change
Runoff
Liaohe River Basin
Hydrological responses.
