摘要
以渝西地区11个气象站点2004-2010年的连阴雨、洪涝、高温累积天数,以及各区(县)相应年份统计年鉴中粮食播种面积、粮食产量为原始数据,借助面板数据模型,对县域尺度上连阴雨、洪涝、高温三类气象灾害累积天数的空间特征及其对渝西地区粮食单产的影响效应进行研究。结果表明,渝西地区县域层面的连阴雨、洪涝、高温三类气象灾害的累积天数和年际波动幅度差异明显;同时,连阴雨、洪涝、高温灾害的累积天数每增加1%,将导致渝西地区粮食单产分别减少0.036%、0.015%和0.31%。针对连阴雨、洪涝、高温三类气象灾害制定相应的减灾政策,有助于保障渝西地区粮食生产的稳定。
The spatial characteristics of three meteorological disasters and their impacts on crop yield per unit in counties of western Chongqing was analyzed, by using the panel date model based on cumulative days of continuous rain ,floods and hot weather from 11 meteorological stations from 2004 to 2010, and the data of crop sown area and yield from local statistical yearbook. The results showed that there was a difference in cumulative days and its fluctuations for three meteorological disasters. Crop yield would decrease by 0. 036%, 0. 015% and 0. 31% respectively if 1% increases of cumulative days. Therefore, it was benefit to keep crop yield stable that taking countermeasures to continuous rain ,floods and hot weather in Western Chongqing.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期210-214,共5页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家公益性行业科研专项课题"气候变化背景下农业气象灾害对我国农业生产影响的评估技术"(GYHY20110621)
关键词
渝西
气象灾害
空间特性
粮食生产
面板数据模型
Western Chongqing
Meteorological disasters
Spatial characteristic
Crop production
Panel date model
