摘要
利用宿迁地区104个乡镇2003—2013年水稻产量资料和2008—2013年保险理赔资料,计算水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害的灾害损失率;在自定义暴雨洪涝灾害指数的基础上,分析水稻灾损率与暴雨洪涝灾害指数的相关关系,建立各水稻种植区的气象理赔指数面板随机效应模型。结果得出:宿迁地区水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害影响的平均灾损率为-1.83%,达到理赔标准的乡镇比率为37.5%;受暴雨洪涝灾害影响最重的是III区,其次是I区,VII区和II区位居第三,其他几个区相对较轻;暴雨洪涝灾害主要影响水稻的孕穗扬花期和灌浆成熟期,对孕穗扬花期以前的生育期影响较小;暴雨洪涝灾害指数对水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害影响有较好的指示意义,利用这一指数制作水稻在灾损率预报准确率较高,达到90%以上;利用气象理赔指数,能较好的预报和模拟宿迁地区水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害的灾损率分布,对降低理赔风险,减少理赔费用有较强的指导意义。
By using the rice yield data of 104 towns in Suqian area from 2003 to 2013 and insurance claiming data from 2008 to 2013, the rice loss rate caused by rainstorm and flood disasters was calculat- ed. Based on the suggested rainstorm and flood index, the panel function was used to analyze the relation- ship between rice damage rates and rainstorm and flood index and to build the panel random effects model of weather claiming index in every rice-planting region. Results show that the average rice damage rate in Suqian caused by rainstorm and flood disasters is -1.83%, and there are 37.5% urban and rural areas which are up to the claiming standard; the most serious damage region is region III, followed by region I , region It and region IV, and then the damage of the other regions are relatively light ; the rainstorm and flood disaster have the main effects on booting flowering and grain filling periods, however, it has less effect on the growth period before booting flowering; the rainstorm and flood index is important to un- derstand the effect of rainstorm and flood on the rice growth, in addition, the forecast accuracy of rice damage rate is relatively high, up to over 90% by using the index mentioned above. Overall, the distribu- tion of rice damage rate caused weather claiming index, which costs. by rainstorm and flood disaster can be forecasted and simulated better by also has better guiding significance on reducing the claiming risk and costs.
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2017年第3期416-424,共9页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
江苏省气象科研开放基金项目(K201010)
关键词
水稻
暴雨洪涝灾害
灾损率
气象理赔指数
Rice
Rainstorm and flood disaster
Damage rate
Weather claiming index
