摘要
城市交通布局对城市形态具有重大影响,也对城市的发展方向起着重大的引导作用。以瑞典J nk ping市为例,采用CLUE-S模型模拟不同交通情景下的城市发展动态变化。首先,基于2000年土地利用数据,选择影响土地利用变化的驱动因子构建Logistic回归方程。然后利用CLUE-S模型,在模型检验和参数验证的基础上,模拟未来25年不同交通情景下城市形态空间格局的变化。结果表明:可达性因子的选择对于改善用地类型的回归结果具有显著影响;不同的道路类型和交通设施等级对各用地类型转换概率有不同程度的影响。对两种不同的交通规划情景下的土地利用空间分布格局的动态模拟发现,在未来交通规划情景下,土地利用动态度增加,且在城市中心区交通发达的区域,城市呈现填空式拓展,新增加的城市用地分布比较集中;城市外围表现出较强的沿交通线的拓展趋势,城市空间结构与城市交通互动关系明显。
The urban transportation is one of key factors impacted on urban morphology, and also is a major guidance to the development of cities. In this paper, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate the dynamic changes of urban development under different traffic scenarios as the case of Jonkoping Municipality, Sweden.Firstly, driving factors were selected to build logistic regression equations based on the data of land use in 2000a. Secondly, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate changes of urban spatial patterns in the coming 25 years in different traffic scenarios on the basis of the model verification and parameters validation.The results showed that traffic factors had significant influence on regression results, and the correlation of land use type conversion probability varied with different types of roads and traffic facilities. From the dynamic simulation of spatial distribution patterns of land use under two kinds of different traffic planning scenarios, we may found that urban growth presented a filled-in expand and urban land newly increased distributed more concentrated in the center of the city where the traffic is convenient;While urban growth diffused along the traffic trunk lines in the city periphery. There was an obvious interaction between dynamic expanding of urban land use and urban traffic.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第12期145-150,共6页
Economic Geography
基金
重庆市自然科学基金项目(2011jjA30014)
