摘要
土地利用变化的空间模拟是进行土地利用情景分析的重要基础。本文在介绍了国际上常用的细胞自控模型(CA)、土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE)的基础上,重点分析了小尺度土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE-S)的方法,并以邯郸地区为例进行了案例研究。认为CLUE-S模型采取经验模型的方法,通过建立土地利用空间分配和驱动因子之间的统计关系模拟近期土地利用变化的情景。同时也考虑了不同土地利用方式之间的竞争关系,因此可以较好地模拟小尺度地区的近期土地利用变化情景;考虑到短期或近期土地利用变化的因子主要与人类的社会经济活动有关,而社会经济因子的空间化尚存在一定难度。因此,突破这一瓶颈成为CLUE-S模型发展和应用的关键;CLUE-S模型主要解决的是不同空间尺度上的土地利用空间分配问题,在土地生产潜力评价、土地利用规划等方面具有广阔的应用前景。
Simulation of land use change spatially is the important base for analyzing land use scenario. On the base of introducing Cell Autumat model (CA) and Conversion of land use change and its effects (CLUE) model, Conversion of land use change and its effects--small region model is analyzed. CA model fits to simulate urban land use change , Shenzhen city's land use change is simulated with this model. CLUE(Conversion of land use and its effects) model fits to simulate land use change in macro scale, It has four main modules including demand module, population module, production module and spatial distribution module. Land use change of China from 1991 to 2010 is simulated with this model. And CLUE-S model fits to simulate land use change in micro scale and have wide applied field.To take Handan district of Hebei province as an example, the SPOT image of this district in 1995 is processed, and its relative driving force including altitude, gradient, soil classification, the distance to main road, to general road, to central city, to main cities and nearest resident area is also analyzed. Three scenarios are selected: the first is policy-driving land use scenario in 2010, the second is economic-driving land use scenario in 2010, and the third is sustainable development driving land use scenario in 2010. and a series parameters are set. Finally, the following result is put out: to set up the statistic relation between driving force of land use change and spatial distribution by experiential model and simulate land use change scenario in short time is the core of CLUE-S model. In this model, The competition of different land use types is better resolved in CLUE-S model, it is a effective model for simulating land use change; considering the driving force of land use change in short time mainly related to soci-economic factor, and it is still difficult to distribute soci-economic factors in space, to resolve this problem is the key to develop and apply CLUE-S model; Since it can deal with the spatial distribution in different scale, CLUE-S model has expansive applied value in land production potential assessment and land use planning fields.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期63-71,i003,共10页
Progress in Geography
基金
国土资源部科技专项技术(20010305).
关键词
土地利用变化
空间模拟
land use change model
CLUE-S
spatial distribution
