摘要
一个区域生态适度人口的确定取决于区域生态承载能力与区域人口对生态资源的需求。首先介绍了生态足迹的基本概念和计算方法,其次计算了新疆1998-2008年的生态足迹和实际利用的生态承载力,并在此基础上估算了新疆1998-2008年的生态适度人口。结果表明:在1998-2000年期间,新疆实际人口从1747.35万增加到1849.41万;新疆生态适度人口从841.272万一直增加到935.744万;过剩人口也是从906.078万一直增加到913.666万。在2001-2007年之间,新疆实际人口在逐步增加,从1876.19万增加到2095.19万;在此期间新疆生态适度人口反而呈现出不断下降趋势,从819.721万一直下降到574.94万;新疆过剩人口从1056.469万一直增加到1520.25万。2008年期间,新疆过剩人口比2007年减少了,主要原因是人均生态足迹下降,从而引起生态适度人口的上升。总之,新疆目前已经出现了过度人口和生态赤字,人口规模是非常不合理的,生态可持续发展仍在不可持续的范围内。
The ecological optimum of a region is decided by regional ecological capacity and the ecological resources needed by populations.In this paper,we firstly introduced the key conceptions and procedures of the model,and then calculated the ecological footprint and the utilizable ecological capacity from 1998 to 2008 in Xinjiang.On this base,the optimum population in Xinjiang from 1998 to 2008 was estimated.During 1998 2000,the actual population of Xinjiang gradually increased from 1747.35 thousands to 1849.41 thousands,and the ec-optimum population of Xinjiang gradually increased from 841.272 thousands to 935.744 thousands.During 2001-2007,the actual population in Xinjiang gradually increased,from 18,761,900 to 20,951,900.During this period the ecological moderate population of Xinjiang showed a decreasing trend,it declined from 8,197,210 to 5,749,400 in 2008,the surplus population in Xinjiang was less that than in 2007,mainly due to decline in ecological footprint per capita,which led to the rise of ecological optimum population.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期160-164,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家973重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951004)
国家自然科学基金(41001020)资助
关键词
生态足迹
适度人口
新疆
ecological footprint
optimum population
Xinjiang
