摘要
基于国民财富与资本组合管理的视角,借助资本适宜比率、关键资本识别和自然资本转换模式,评估了我国财富积累是否处于可持续发展路径,并考察了省际差异。研究发现:资本比率是由资源禀赋与投资模式共同决定的;从替代弹性与增长贡献两条路径来看,社会资本是我国经济发展的关键资本;我国的财富积累整体处于可持续路径,但少数资源富裕省区对自然资源损耗的补偿不足,其发展的可持续性受到挑战;为了实现可持续发展,我国应摆脱过度依赖自然资源与人口红利的发展模式,通过优化资本结构、深化社会经济体制改革,提升人力资本和社会资本贡献度。
From the perspectives of national wealth and portfolio management, this paper applied capital appropriate ratio, critical capital identification and natural capital switching pattern to evaluate whether China’s wealth accumulation was sustainable, also to explore its provincial disparities. The findings were as follows. Firstly, resource endowment and investment pattern had jointly decided capital ratio. Secondly, in terms of two paths of elasticity of substitution and growth contribution, social capital played a critical role in China’s economic development. Thirdly, there was a sustainable path of China’s wealth accumulation in genaral, but the sustainable development of those resource-rich provinces had been chanllenged by their undercompensation for the loss of natural resources.Hence, we proposed that, the government had to abandon the development mode relying too much on natural resources and demographic dividend, and to promote the contribution of human capital and social capital through optimizing capital structure and deepening social and economic system reform.
作者
郝枫
张圆
陆洲
HAO Feng;ZHANG Yuan;LU Zhou(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期1-16,共16页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
天津市哲学社会科学基金重点项目(TJTJ20-001)
国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ001)
关键词
国民财富
可持续性
关键资本
转换模式
反事实评估
national wealth
sustainability
critical capital
switching pattern
counterfactual evaluation
