摘要
针对灰色模型在建模过程中受到随机扰动影响这一问题,利用马尔科夫模型预测波动性数据准确的优势,对灰色模型进行改进,并应用于大坝变形预测计算与分析。结果表明,改进的灰色马尔科夫模型对存在扰动数据的大坝变形预测中,可以获得较好的预测效果,提高预测精度。
According to the problem that the gray model is influenced by the random disturbance during building the model,the gray model is improved by using Markov model＇s advantage of high precision prediction for fluctuant data.The experiment results show that the new model could enhance the accuracy of predicted value in comparison with the traditional gray model,and could achieve the better effect in dam deformation monitoring and analysis.
出处
《水利与建筑工程学报》
2012年第3期65-66,194,共3页
Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering
关键词
灰色模型
马尔科夫模型
模型改进
大坝
变形监测
变形预测
gray model
Markov model
model improvement
dam
deformation monitoring
deformation prediction
