摘要
以1996年和2009年滦县土地利用现状图为基础,运用ARCGIS 9.3中图层叠加和地统计方法计算滦县耕地、建设用地和未利用地的重心变化以及土地利用转移矩阵,并应用马尔科夫模型对滦县1996～2009年13 a来土地利用时空变化进行了模拟,最后对2022年土地利用格局进行了预测。结果表明:1996～2009年滦县耕地迅速减少,并向山区转移,质量呈下降趋势;建设用地扩展迅速,其中城镇工矿和农村居民点用地扩展较大;从空间分布上看,建设用地在整个县域都有增加,尤以东部城区和西部扩展规模较大。预测结果与2020年规划目标对比显示,滦县耕地保护和建设用地控制压力较大。应采用多种管理措施,以确保规划目标的实现。
Based on the land use map of Luanxian in 1996 and 2009,the gravity center of farmland,construction land and unutilized land and the transition matrix of land use were calculated according to the results of map layers intersection in ARCGIS 9.3 and geo-statistics.The land use changesly from 1996 to 2009 were simulated using Markov model.The land use pattern in 2022 was predicted.The results showed that farmland reduced rapidly from 1996 to 2009,transferred to the mountain,and the quality tended to decline.The construction land expanded rapidly,the land use in towns mine-industry and rural residential area increased greatly.From the spatial distribution,the construction land increased in the whole county,especially in the eastern and western.Compared the prediction result and the planning target for 2020,the pressure from the farmland protection and the control of construction land was great.Various measures should be implemented to realize the planning target.
出处
《河北农业科学》
2011年第12期51-55,共5页
Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences
基金
河北省滦县土地利用总体规划项目
关键词
滦县
土地利用
时空变化
马尔科夫模型
重心
Luanxian
Land use
Time-space change
Markov model
Gravity center
