房地产价格波动、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于均值和波动层面溢出效应的实证研究被引量：6

Housing Price Volatility, Monetary Policy Regulation and the Stability of Macro Economy—An Empirical Study based on the Mean and Volatility Spillover Effect

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摘要本文在一个完整框架内详细考察了房地产价格波动、货币政策调控与我国宏观经济稳定之间的溢出关系与关联特征,从均值水平和波动层面上实证研究了实际产出、通货膨胀、货币政策和房地产价格之间的作用关系。结果显示,房地产价格能够显著影响经济运行并能够在均值和波动层面显著影响货币政策,而货币政策对调控房地产价格作用有限,仅在波动层面具有显著影响。事实上,近年来的政策实践表明,仅靠货币政策难以有效调控房地产市场价格,必须借助多种相关政策措施的配合与协调。 Through the elaborates of the spillover effect and the relevant features among the volatility of housing price,the regulation of moneta ry policy and the stability of macro economy in a completed framework,the paper makes an empirical study from both mean value and fluctuation on the interaction among real output,inflation,monetary policy and real estate price.The result shows that housing price can significantly affect economic operation and impact significantly on monetary policies in mean value and volatility while monetary policies exert limited influence on housing price mainly in the volatility level.In fact,the policy implementation of recent years shows that more relevant approaches are needed to effectively manage/regulate the housing price.

作者吴超

机构地区天津财经大学

出处《上海金融》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第5期16-22,116,共7页 Shanghai Finance

关键词房地产价格货币政策宏观经济稳定资产价格 Housing Price Monetary Policy The Stability of Macro Economy Assets Price

分类号 F820 [经济管理—财政学]

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