摘要
以统计年鉴及各项规划提供的水资源量数据为依据,运用SD模型和情景分析法,分析、探讨了可以促进张家口坝上生态维持和生产持续增长的合理发展模式.研究表明:1)从水资源量可供给水平出发,该区应该合理规划工业规模,适当控制工业增长速度;2)农畜加工业产品的单位用水量及带来的社会、经济效益较重工业更为显著,故主导产业应适度向农畜产品加工业倾斜;3)应该酌情压缩蔬菜种植面积,该区不适宜继续作为蔬菜基地进行建设;4)变种植蔬菜为种植牧草,这样做不仅会减少水资源压力,而且可以以有限的水资源发展农、畜产品加工业,增进经济收益;5)2004年用水量已经处于超支状态,考虑到保护生态与环境,仍应该适当减少放牧数量.
Data of available water resources were used to build a system dynamics model,to promote sustained regional growth and to maintain or restore regional ecological system in Bashang,Zhangjiakou.It was found that irrigation area and industrial growth rate were negatively correlated.For constant total water supply,industrial growth will inevitably lead to reduced irrigation area.Region should therefore set a reasonable rate of industrial growth.Comparison of unit water consumption,social and economic benefits for farm processing industry and heavy industry indicated that farm processing industry should be given preferential treatments.Vegetable production in this area should be contracted.Vegetable growing should be changed to grass planting,to reduce water demand.Agriculture and livestock processing industry which has limited water demand should be developed,to increase economic benefits.The current water deficit clearly indicates that livestocks should be reduced in this region to conserve the regional ecological system.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期618-624,共7页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家"973"项目基金资助项目(2007CB106807)
关键词
水资源
系统动力学
情景分析
张家口坝上
water resources
SD model
scenarios analysis
Bashang region of Zhangjiakou
