摘要
群体性突发事件是当前我国社会危机的一个突出问题,迫切需要进行有效地监测与预警.针对江门的社会、经济、文化特点,设计了一套群体性突发事件预警指标体系.引入信息熵理论,采用熵值法来确定指标权重,建立了基于熵权和灰色关联度的群体性突发事件预警模型.用上述模型对江门市进行实证研究,表明江门市2005年-2008年间除2006年处于中险警级外,其余年份都处于轻险警级.最后,根据实证分析结果,提出了政策建议.
As an important issue, it is urgently needed to monitor and forewarn the Group unexpected incidents involving mass participation. Considering for the social, economic and cultural characteristics of Jiangmen, a forewarning index system is designed. Entropy method is applied to derive the relative importance of each index, and a grey relevant analysis model is established, which can reflect the risk forewarning degree of group unexpected incidents involving mass participation. The model is applied to make forewarning analysis of Jiangmen City form 2005 to 2008, the empirical research shows the city was in low risk degree in 2005, 2007, 2008 and mild risk degree in 2006. At last, some suggestions are proposed according to the empirical research results.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第24期25-32,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
广东省软科学研究项目(2009B070300146)
江门市哲学社会科学规划课题(2009C25)
关键词
群体性突发事件
预警
熵
灰色关联分析
group unexpected incidents involving mass participation
forewarning
entropygrey relevant analysis
