摘要
结合滑坡位移监测数据,从滑坡位移基本发展演化规律出发,选取两种统计性预报模型——指数平滑法和回归分析模型对滑坡进行预测预报。分别从建模思想、建模原理及预报判据等几个方面进行详细的分析讨论,比较了两个模型的适用条件和优越性。以三峡库区石鼓寺滑坡为例,根据滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行建模和预测,分析对比实测与预测位移-时间曲线之间的关系。模型分析对比结果显示回归分析模型在滑坡预测过程中效果较好,说明所建预测预报模型在滑坡预测中是有效可行的。
Based on the displacement monitoring data and basic laws of displacement evolution of landslide, two statistical prediction models, exponential smoothing method and regression analysis model, are selected for landslide prediction. A detailed discussion is made to compare the conditions and advantages of the two models from aspects of modeling idea, theory, criteria and et al. Taking Shigusi landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example, build a landslide prediction model based on the actual situation and part of the monitoring points of landslide. Using two prediction models to analysis and discuss the relationship between predicted and measured curve of displacement vs time. The results demon- strate that the regression analysis model has better effect on landslide prediction. The prediction model is feasible and effective on the landslide prediction.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第10期88-91,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology
关键词
边坡工程
滑坡预测预报
指数平滑法
回归分析模型
slope engineering
landslide prediction
exponential smoothing method
regression analysis model
