摘要
由于一次、二次和三次指数平滑法对不同消耗规律的航材预测拟合度不同,本文同时采用这三种指数平滑法进行航材消耗定额预测,其平滑系数采用使误差平方和最小的值,最后选择三种方法中误差平方和最小的结果作为航材消耗定额。预测结果表明综合利用三种指数平滑法进行预测要比单一方法预测更加准确,该研究方法具有较高的实用性和推广性。
Because the linear, secondary, cubic exponential smoothing method have different fitting degree when predicting the spares with the different consumption discipline, this paper adopts the three kinds of exponential smoothing method to predict spares consumption quota, whose smoothing coefficients take a value that makes the squared error minimum when it is in a certain range, finally selects the result, with minimum squared error among the three methods, as spares consumption quota. Prediction results show that the comprehensive application of three kinds of exponential smoothing method to predict is more accurate than single method, the research method is of higher utility and promotion.
出处
《计算机与现代化》
2012年第9期163-165,共3页
Computer and Modernization
关键词
一次指数平滑
二次指数平滑
三次指数平滑
航材消耗预测
linear exponential smoothing
secondary exponential smoothing
cubic exponential smoothing
sparesconsumption prediction
