摘要
电力工业与国民经济之间的关联关系十分密切,对两者之间未来的协调发展情况进行趋势预测和分析,对于我国电力产业政策以及国家经济政策的制定具有一定的参考价值。通过马尔科夫残差修正灰色模型（MREC）,选取电力工业和国民经济评价指标并对2010~2015年各评价指标进行预测,然后计算电力工业和国民经济评价指标的关联度及其耦合度,以此对两者的协调发展趋势进行实证分析,结果表明：我国电力工业与国民经济在未来的几年里,其协调发展的稳定性将进一步增强,其耦合度将维持在0.7左右。
There is a close relationship between China＇s power industry and national economy.The forecasting and research into the coordinated development trend between them can providea reference for policymaking of power industry and national economy.Using MREC Grey Model（Markov Residual Error Correction Grey Model）,selecting the indicators of power industry and national economy and forecasting all indicators for the duration of 2010-2015.Then calculating the correlation and coupling of national economy and the power industry,and analyzing the coordinated development trend.The result is the stability of coordinated development trend between national economy and power industry is enhanced,and the coupling will be maintained at about 0.7.
出处
《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第3期67-71,共5页
Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971038)
