摘要
近年来中国的电力短缺严重地制约了中国经济的增长，对中国电力与经济增长的关系进行研究，可为中国经济决策与电力产业政策的制定提供科学依据。本文提出了电力与经济的关系研究，应同时考虑电力（装机容量）、电量与经济的关系，基于1975～2002年中国GDP、全社会用电量及装机容量等统计数据，利用格氏因果关系及误差修正模型，检验了中国电力与经济的关系，结果显示，其关系是全社会用电量到GDP的单向因果关系、装机容量到GDP的单向因果关系，电力与电量的短缺会严重制约GDP的增长；用电量每增加1％，GDP增长0．943％，装机容量每增加1％，GDP增长1．12％，装机容量对经济的促进作用更大。因此，在电力短缺和能源资源稀缺与新的电力市场条件下，中国应做好电源和电网规划与建设工作，做好产业结构调整，以促进中国经济的可持续地发展。
In recent years, the power shortage has severely hold back the development of Chinese economy, and the study on the relationship between Chinese power and economic development can supply scientific evidences for regulating the Chinese economic decisions and power industry policies. The article raises that the research should consider the electricity consumption and the electric power （installed-capacity） at the same time. It uses the Granger-Causality （GC） and Error Correction Model（ECM） to examine the relationship between electricity and economy based on the data of GDP,electricity consumption and installed-capacity during 1975- 2002 in China. The results show that the Granger causality is running from electricity consumption to real GDP, from installed-capacity to real GDP, the shortage of the electric power and the electricity will constraint the increase of GDP. When the electricity consumption grows 1 percent, the real GDP will rise O. 943 percent, and the installed-capacity grows 1 percent, the real GDP will rise 1.12 percent, so the installed-capacity accelerates the economy even more. On the condition of the power and the resource shortage, China should coordinate the power generation and networks planning regulate the industry construct well, so as to accelerate the economic development sustain-ably.
出处
《产业经济研究》
2006年第1期47-53,共7页
Industrial Economics Research
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(05CJY020)
华北电力大学留学回国人员基金资助项目(200401)
关键词
电力
经济
装机容量
因果关系
误差修正模型
electric power
economy
installed capacity
causality
error correction model
