中国电力消费与经济增长的均衡关系分析被引量：19

Analysis of equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China

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摘要为了研究中国电力消费与经济增长之间是否具有长期稳定均衡关系,用协整分析方法检验了中国国内生产总值(GDP)与电力消费水平之间关系。采用恩格尔-葛兰杰(E-G)检验,考虑数据结构变化的可能,研究了外部经济冲击对中国经济增长与电力消费之间长期均衡关系的影响。分析结果表明:E-G方法检测到我国经济增长与电力消费之间存在协整关系;考虑结构变化,通过设定虚拟变量,E-G方法检测到原有协整关系在1993年发生了变化。结合我国电力市场发展的实际状况,得出协调我国电力生产与经济增长矛盾的方法。 In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and electricity consumption in China was investigated using the method of co-integration analysis. Using the Engle-Granger （E-G） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that the E-G test detects the co-integration relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption; considering structural changes, E-G test detects the change of original co-integration relationship in 1993 through specifying the dummy variable. Combining the real situation of the electricity market development in China, this study provides a method of coordinating the inconsistency between economic growth and electricity consumption.

作者郭建平何建敏吴国富

机构地区东南大学经济管理学院

出处《中国电力》 CSCD 北大核心 2006年第9期60-62,共3页 Electric Power

基金国家自然科学基金资助项目(70371035)

关键词协整冲击电力消费 co-integration shock electricity consumption

分类号 F407.61 [经济管理—产业经济]

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