摘要
中国对东亚国家(地区)的贸易长期处于逆差状态,而同时对美国却保持高额顺差。本文通过实证分析认为,中国对东亚的贸易逆差及对美国的贸易顺差之间存在联动效应,并从雁行模式的东亚产业转移、东亚生产网络及美国需求三方面分析了该联动效应产生的原因。还探讨了差额联动的变化趋势:长期看,由于中国在三角贸易中的地位将有所改变,差额联动效应有望减弱;短期看,差额联动效应仍将存在。
China has always been keeping trade deficit with East Asia,but keeping trade sur-plus with America at the same time.The paper proves a coupling effect between the trade surplus and deficit by positive analysis,and analyses the reason why a coupling effect can exist from three aspects：East Asian industrial transfer in flying geese model,East Asian production net-works and American demand.The paper also discusses the trend of coupling effect：in the long run,the effect is expected to reduce since the position of China in triangular trade pattern will be changed;in the short term,the effect will still exist.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期75-85,共11页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
教育部规划基金项目"国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究"的阶段性成果
项目批准号:10YJA790044
关键词
贸易差额
联动效应
生产网络
Balance of Trade
Coupling Effect
Production Networks
